Will GPT-6 Astra top the Arena text ranking (formerly LMArena) on October 31, 2026?

Market rules

The market resolves to "Yes" if on October 31, 2026 (at any moment during that day UTC; the last snapshot of the day is taken in case of discrepancies) the first place by score (Score) in the main Text table at https://arena.ai/leaderboard (default view) is occupied by the OpenAI model from the "GPT-6 Astra" family (including variants with different levels of reasoning and Pro versions if they are listed in the table under the name GPT-6 Astra). If any other model occupies the first place, if GPT-6 Astra is not added to the table, or if it only ties for "rank 1" by confidence intervals but does not have the highest score — it is "No". Confirmation may be provided through the Internet Archive or the official dump of the dataset lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset. Context at the time of creation: GPT-6 Astra is released on September 3-4, 2026, and is not yet displayed in the Text table; the leading model is Anthropic (Claude Fable 5 (High), ~1506).