Will Google present a Gemini series model 4 by June 30, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Technologies
- Closing date
- 1 July 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +50 pp
- Google has already introduced Gemini 4 series models, such as Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon, in September and October 2026, respectively.
- These models are available for use; for instance, Gemini 4 Argon became generally available on October 13, 2026.
- Official announcements and model availability have been confirmed by sources such as TechCrunch and Axios.
It's like a movie being released in theaters, yet some still doubt its existence.
Market rules
"Yes" if by June 30, 2027, 23:59 UTC inclusive, Google or Google DeepMind officially presents at least one model with generation number 4 in the name of the Gemini family (for example, Gemini 4, Gemini 4 Pro, Gemini 4 Flash, Gemini 4.x). Numeric threshold: at least 1 such model. Verification criteria: the page https://deepmind.google/models/gemini/ indicates generation Gemini 4 or higher, or an official announcement of such a model is published in the Google blog with a date no later than 30.06.2027. Reference as of 03.08.2026: the current generation is Gemini 3.5, the latest releases are Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite. Otherwise, "No," including the case when only versions 3.x are released. Edge cases: limited public preview access is considered a presentation with an official announcement; leaks, rumors, codenames in A/B tests, and mentions without an announcement are not considered; models from other Google families (Gemma, Veo, Imagen) are not counted. In case of a delay in updating or unavailability of the page, the outcome is recorded based on the date of the official Google announcement within 72 hours after the resolution date.