Will Gibraltar issue 2 or more prediction-market licenses before December 1, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 33%

Status
Open
Category
Politics
Closing date
30 November 2026
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +57% for “Yes”, confidence 85%

  • Gibraltar has already issued two prediction market licenses: one to Predict Street Ltd in March 2026 and another to Wire Markets Ltd in June 2026.
  • The new Prediction Market Regulations 2026, effective from July 2026, provide a clear framework for licensing, encouraging more operators to apply.
  • Gibraltar's proactive approach positions it as a favorable jurisdiction for prediction market operators seeking regulation.
  • The licensing of two operators ahead of the formal publication of the new regulations indicates a strong commitment to expanding this sector.

Like a restaurant that has already served two customers before its official opening, Gibraltar has issued two prediction market licenses ahead of the formal regulations.

Market rules

Resolves YES if the Gibraltar regulator (GFSC / Gambling Division) has issued licenses to 2 or more distinct prediction-market operators on or before 2026-11-30 UTC, per official Gibraltar government sources or reputable reporting. Otherwise NO.

Official resolution source