Will Gibraltar issue 2 or more prediction-market licenses before December 1, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 33%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 30 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +52 pp
- Gibraltar has established a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, indicating a supportive environment for such licenses.
- Two prediction market operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, have already been licensed under this new regime.
- The Prediction Market Regulations 2026, effective from July 13, 2026, facilitate the licensing process for prediction market operators.
- The Gibraltar government anticipates substantial growth in the prediction market sector, suggesting more licenses may be issued soon.
Like a fertile field ready for planting, Gibraltar's new regulations create an environment where prediction market licenses can flourish.
Market rules
Resolves YES if the Gibraltar regulator (GFSC / Gambling Division) has issued licenses to 2 or more distinct prediction-market operators on or before 2026-11-30 UTC, per official Gibraltar government sources or reputable reporting. Otherwise NO.