Will Gibraltar issue 2 or more prediction-market licenses before December 1, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 33%

Status
Open
Category
Politics
Closing date
30 November 2026
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI edge: +52 pp

  • Gibraltar has established a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, indicating a supportive environment for such licenses.
  • Two prediction market operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, have already been licensed under this new regime.
  • The Prediction Market Regulations 2026, effective from July 13, 2026, facilitate the licensing process for prediction market operators.
  • The Gibraltar government anticipates substantial growth in the prediction market sector, suggesting more licenses may be issued soon.

Like a fertile field ready for planting, Gibraltar's new regulations create an environment where prediction market licenses can flourish.

Market rules

Resolves YES if the Gibraltar regulator (GFSC / Gambling Division) has issued licenses to 2 or more distinct prediction-market operators on or before 2026-11-30 UTC, per official Gibraltar government sources or reputable reporting. Otherwise NO.

Official resolution source