Will the Federal Reserve of the United States publish a decision on the interest rate following the meeting on June 17-18, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 98%

Status
Settled
Category
Economy
Closing date
18 June 2026
Participants
1
Outcome
Yes
Resolution date
21 July 2026

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +2% for “Yes”, confidence 99%

  • The Federal Reserve traditionally publishes an official statement following each FOMC meeting.
  • The FOMC meeting schedule for 2026 confirms that a meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, 2026.
  • Previous FOMC meetings in 2026 have been accompanied by the release of official statements.
  • The absence of an official statement following an FOMC meeting would be unprecedented and would cause significant uncertainty in financial markets.

The likelihood of the Fed not issuing a statement after the meeting is as low as the sun not rising tomorrow.

Market rules

Resolution Yes, if an official press release with the decision on the rate is published following the FOMC meeting on June 17-18, 2026 (regardless of the direction of the decision).

Official resolution source