Will at least one red card be shown in the final of the 2026 World Cup?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 20 July 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 20 July 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +10% for “Yes”, confidence 70%
- The 2010 World Cup final featured 14 yellow cards and one red card.
- The opening match of the 2026 World Cup saw the referee issue three red cards for the first time.
- In the first 27 matches of the 2026 World Cup, more red cards were issued than in the entire 2022 tournament.
- The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams, potentially leading to more intense matches and an increase in fouls.
Just as the 2010 World Cup final saw a red card, the 2026 final is likely to feature an ejection.
Market rules
"Yes" if the official match report from FIFA indicates that at least one red card (either a direct red or a second yellow) has been shown to any player or team member during regular or extra time in the final of the 2026 World Cup. Otherwise - "No". At the time of posting: the final has not been played.