Will the final of the 2026 World Cup be decided by a penalty shootout?
Current probability of “Yes”: 38%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 20 July 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 21 July 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -36% for “No”, confidence 85%
- Out of 22 FIFA World Cup finals, only 3 have been decided by penalty shootouts.
- Since 1994, when the first final was decided by penalties, there have been 8 tournaments, with only 3 ending this way.
- World Cup finals often conclude in regular or extra time without the need for penalties.
Like a rare event with a probability lower than the market suggests.
Market rules
"Yes", if according to the official match protocol of FIFA the winner of the 2026 World Cup final (July 19, New York/New Jersey Stadium) is determined by a penalty shootout. Otherwise — "No". As of the time of the wager: the finalists are not determined, the match has not been played.