Will Mikhail Fyodorov become the President of Ukraine following the upcoming presidential elections?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 1 January 2031
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -53 pp
- Fedorov ranks third in polls with 12.5% support.
- He promised not to compete with Zelensky in elections during hostilities.
- The date of the next presidential elections in Ukraine is officially undefined.
- Martial law in Ukraine has been extended until October 31, 2026.
Like a horse that starts well but doesn't finish first.
Market rules
The market resolves to YES if, as a result of the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, which will take place no later than December 31, 2030, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (CEC) officially declares Mikhail Fyodorov elected as the President of Ukraine. The market resolves to NO if: (a) another candidate becomes the elected President; (b) Fyodorov is not registered as a candidate or withdraws his candidacy; (c) the presidential elections do not take place by December 31, 2030 (including due to the ongoing state of martial law). Polls, ratings, and nomination as a candidate are NOT in themselves grounds for a YES — only the officially announced final result of the elections is taken into account. As of August 20, 2026, the state of martial law in Ukraine has been extended until October 31, 2026, and the date of the next presidential elections has not been officially determined.