Will Mikhail Fyodorov become the President of Ukraine following the upcoming presidential elections?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 1 January 2031
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -63% for “No”, confidence 70%
- Fedorov ranks third in polls with 12.5% support, trailing Zelensky and Zaluzhny.
- Trust in Fedorov increased to 65% after his dismissal, but it is still lower than Zaluzhny's (70%).
- Fedorov publicly called for elections, which may indicate his presidential ambitions.
- Martial law in Ukraine has been extended until October 31, 2026, which may affect the holding of elections.
Like a team finishing third in a championship has chances to win but is not the favorite.
Market rules
The market resolves to YES if, as a result of the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, which will take place no later than December 31, 2030, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (CEC) officially declares Mikhail Fyodorov elected as the President of Ukraine. The market resolves to NO if: (a) another candidate becomes the elected President; (b) Fyodorov is not registered as a candidate or withdraws his candidacy; (c) the presidential elections do not take place by December 31, 2030 (including due to the ongoing state of martial law). Polls, ratings, and nomination as a candidate are NOT in themselves grounds for a YES — only the officially announced final result of the elections is taken into account. As of August 20, 2026, the state of martial law in Ukraine has been extended until October 31, 2026, and the date of the next presidential elections has not been officially determined.