Will the Fed manage without rate cuts in 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +10% for “Yes”, confidence 80%
- The latest Fed dot plot shows that 14 out of 19 FOMC members expect either zero or one rate cut in 2026.
- Goldman Sachs has delayed its rate cut forecast to December 2026 due to elevated inflation driven by the war with Iran.
- UOB projects an extended policy pause by the Fed through 2026, with potential easing resuming in 2027.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate hike is unlikely in the near future, indicating potential maintenance of current rates.
Like a driver planning to stop at a red light but sees the signal remain green.
Market rules
"Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not lower the target range for the federal funds rate at all during the entire 2026 calendar year (zero cuts; increases or maintaining at 'Yes' do not affect). "No" if there is at least one cut. Source - official FOMC press releases for 2026.