Will the Fed manage without rate cuts in 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -20 pp
- The Fed projects one rate cut in 2026.
- Some analysts anticipate rate cuts in December 2026.
- Inflation remains above target, potentially delaying rate cuts.
- Markets expect one or two rate cuts in 2026.
Like a weather forecast with a 70% chance of rain.
Market rules
"Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not lower the target range for the federal funds rate at all during the entire 2026 calendar year (zero cuts; increases or maintaining at 'Yes' do not affect). "No" if there is at least one cut. Source - official FOMC press releases for 2026.