Will the Fed raise the rate at the meeting on September 15-16, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 17 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 18 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +12% for “Yes”, confidence 95%
- The Fed raised rates by 0.25% on September 16, 2026.
- Inflation in July 2026 was 3.3%, above the Fed's target level.
- The Fed signaled potential further rate hikes before year-end.
- Markets anticipated the rate hike given persistent inflation and economic data.
Just as the sun rises in the east, the Fed raised rates amid high inflation.
Market rules
"Yes," if at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raises the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the level that was in effect before the meeting (3.50-3.75%), according to the official Fed press release. Keeping the rate unchanged or lowering it is "No."