Will the U.S. Federal Reserve raise the key rate at least once by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 2 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -1 pp
- Current Fed rate futures indicate an 87.4% probability of a rate hike at the December 9, 2026 meeting.
- Economic indicators, such as GDP growth and inflation, support expectations of a rate hike.
- Statements from FOMC members indicate a tendency towards tightening monetary policy.
- Historically, the Fed rate futures market has been a reliable indicator of future rate decisions.
Like a barometer predicting a storm, Fed rate futures signal an impending rate hike.
Market rules
The market is settled as YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises the target range for the federal funds rate at least once in any meeting that takes place by December 31, 2026, inclusive. The market is settled as NO if the rate was either lowered or held steady in all FOMC meetings in 2026 — meaning no rate increase occurred. Forecasts, market expectations (rate futures), and statements from individual FOMC members alone do not constitute grounds for a resolution — only the actual decision made by the FOMC, published on the official Federal Reserve website, will be considered.