Will the U.S. Federal Reserve raise the key rate at least once by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 2 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, indicating a readiness for further tightening.
- 16 out of 18 FOMC members anticipate another rate hike in 2026.
- Fed projections suggest the federal funds rate will reach 4.1% by the end of 2026, above the current range of 3.75%-4.00%.
- Persistent inflation and a strong labor market increase the likelihood of further rate hikes.
Like a driver increasing speed on the highway, the Fed is likely to continue raising rates to reach its target.
Market rules
The market is settled as YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises the target range for the federal funds rate at least once in any meeting that takes place by December 31, 2026, inclusive. The market is settled as NO if the rate was either lowered or held steady in all FOMC meetings in 2026 — meaning no rate increase occurred. Forecasts, market expectations (rate futures), and statements from individual FOMC members alone do not constitute grounds for a resolution — only the actual decision made by the FOMC, published on the official Federal Reserve website, will be considered.