Will the Fed keep the target range for the rate unchanged at the end of the meeting on September 16, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 16 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 17 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -35% for “No”, confidence 85%
- Recent inflation data shows an uptick, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.
- Markets are pricing in an 85–90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled readiness to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation.
- Geopolitical instability in the Middle East is contributing to rising energy prices, adding to inflationary pressures.
It's like a fire alarm going off, but no one responds.
Market rules
"Yes" if at the end of the FOMC meeting on September 15–16, 2026, the target range for the federal funds rate remains unchanged from the level in effect before the meeting. "No" if there is any change (increase or decrease). Source — official FOMC press release, published on 09.16.2026 at 18:00 UTC (14:00 ET). In case of rescheduling or cancellation of the meeting, the market is canceled.