Will the Fed raise the rate following the meeting on October 28, 2026?

VangAI analysis

VangAI edge: +3 pp

• The market estimates the probability of a rate hike on October 28, 2026, to be between 7.6% and 15%.
• Despite higher-than-expected inflation, the Fed signals maintaining rates at the current level in the upcoming meeting.
• The Fed prefers to wait until December for a possible rate hike to better assess the transience of recent price increases.
• Some Fed members express concern about inflation, but the majority lean towards maintaining rates at the current level in October.

It's like expecting rain, but the weather forecast predicts clear skies.