Will the Fed raise the rate following the meeting on October 28, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 12%

Status
Open
Category
Economy
Closing date
28 October 2026
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +53% for “Yes”, confidence 85%

  • The Fed raised rates by 0.25% on September 16, 2026, signaling potential further hikes.
  • Goldman Sachs now expects another rate hike in October 2026.
  • Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of an October rate hike.
  • The Fed emphasizes the need for further tightening to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Like a driver accelerating to reach the destination on time.

Market rules

"Yes" if the FOMC raises the target range for the rate on 10/28/2026. "No" if it is maintained or lowered. Source - FOMC press release.

Official resolution source