Will the Fed raise the rate following the meeting on October 28, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 28 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +53% for “Yes”, confidence 85%
- The Fed raised rates by 0.25% on September 16, 2026, signaling potential further hikes.
- Goldman Sachs now expects another rate hike in October 2026.
- Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of an October rate hike.
- The Fed emphasizes the need for further tightening to achieve the 2% inflation target.
Like a driver accelerating to reach the destination on time.
Market rules
"Yes" if the FOMC raises the target range for the rate on 10/28/2026. "No" if it is maintained or lowered. Source - FOMC press release.