Will the FCA ease the ban on financial prediction markets by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +0 pp
- Lack of recent FCA statements regarding easing the ban on financial prediction markets.
- FCA's focus on other priorities, such as wholesale market reforms and combating financial crimes.
- Lack of public pressure or lobbying for policy change regarding prediction markets.
- FCA's historical caution towards innovative financial instruments.
Like a ship that doesn't change course without a clear signal.
Market rules
"Yes" if the FCA officially announces the easing/lifting of the ban on financial prediction markets by 31.12.2026. "No" if the ban remains in effect. Source — FCA.