Will the EU Council officially open the second negotiation cluster for Ukraine's accession by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +12% for “Yes”, confidence 95%
- Opening of the second negotiation cluster on July 14, 2026.
- Official confirmation from the EU Council about the cluster opening.
- Publication on the official website enlargement.ec.europa.eu.
- Press release publication on consilium.europa.eu.
It's like the match has already ended, but bets are still being accepted.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the EU Council officially opens at least the second negotiation cluster for Ukraine's accession to the EU (in addition to the first cluster opened on June 15, 2026) by December 31, 2026, inclusive, according to an official announcement on the website enlargement.ec.europa.eu or a press release from the EU Council (consilium.europa.eu). Otherwise – "No". A borderline case: a formal decision by the Council to open the cluster counts as "Yes" regardless of the date of the ministerial conference.