Will the EU Council officially open the second negotiation cluster for Ukraine's accession by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +12 pp
- Ukraine has already opened four out of six negotiation clusters with the EU, including the second cluster on October 13, 2026.
- The Ukrainian government plans to open all negotiation clusters by the end of 2026.
- The EU supports accelerating Ukraine's accession process, as evidenced by the opening of multiple clusters in 2026.
- Official EU statements confirm the intention to open all negotiation clusters for Ukraine within the set timelines.
Like a train that has already traveled halfway to its destination.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the EU Council officially opens at least the second negotiation cluster for Ukraine's accession to the EU (in addition to the first cluster opened on June 15, 2026) by December 31, 2026, inclusive, according to an official announcement on the website enlargement.ec.europa.eu or a press release from the EU Council (consilium.europa.eu). Otherwise – "No". A borderline case: a formal decision by the Council to open the cluster counts as "Yes" regardless of the date of the ministerial conference.