Will ethereum exceed $2,800 by October 12, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 12 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 14 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -25 pp
- End-of-2026 forecasts suggest Ethereum's price will range between $2,509.48 and $3,542.79, indicating a likelihood of exceeding $2,800.
- Ethereum's current price is $2,508.04, close to the $2,800 threshold, making reaching this target in the near future more plausible.
- End-of-September 2026 forecasts give Ethereum a 17.5% chance of reaching $2,800, indicating a moderate probability.
- End-of-2026 forecasts give Ethereum a 63.5% chance of reaching $2,750, indicating a high probability.
Like a runner just steps away from the finish line, Ethereum is close to reaching the $2,800 goal.
Market rules
"Yes" if the ETH/USD price based on historical data from CoinGecko (closing day price or intraday high) exceeds $2,800 at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on October 12, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise — "No". Edge case: in the event of temporary unavailability of the source, the nearest value from that source after restoration, not later than 48 hours, is used.