Will England reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup based on the quarterfinal match against Norway?
Current probability of “Yes”: 62%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 12 July 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 15 July 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +12% for “Yes”, confidence 85%
- England won 50.4% of Opta's simulations and advanced to the semifinals in 62.3% of cases.
- Bookmakers estimate England's probability of winning in regular time at approximately 50%.
- Norway has never beaten European teams at World Cups and hasn't scored in the last four meetings with England.
- England has more experience in World Cup quarterfinals, with 11 appearances at this stage.
Like an experienced chess player against a novice, England has an advantage in experience and statistics.
Market rules
"Yes" if, according to the official FIFA match protocol, the England national team wins the quarterfinal match of the 2026 World Cup against Norway (July 11, Miami Stadium; start 21:00 UTC) in regular time, extra time, or by penalty shootout and advances to the semifinals. Otherwise — "No". At the time of the ruling: the match has not started.