Will the ECB raise the deposit rate above 2.50% at the meeting on October 29, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 88%

Status
Open
Category
Economy
Closing date
30 October 2026
Participants
1

Market rules

The market resolves to "Yes" if, following the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB on October 29, 2026, the deposit facility rate is set above 2.50% (increase of at least 25 bps). If the rate remains at 2.50% or is reduced, the resolution is "No". Source: ECB key rates page and official statement on monetary policy decisions. If the meeting is postponed to a date later than October 30, 2026, the market is void.

Official resolution source