Will the ECB raise the deposit rate above 2.50% at the meeting on October 29, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 30 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 2 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -86 pp
- 70 out of 73 economists predict that on October 29, the ECB will keep the deposit rate at 2.50%.
- Nomura expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29, with subsequent hikes in December 2026 and March 2027.
- The current ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, and it is projected to remain at this level until the end of the quarter.
- The market is pricing in a total of 74 basis points of tightening over the next 9 meetings, with only a 2.2% probability of a rate hike at the October 29 meeting.
It's like a weather forecast predicting a 98% chance of sunshine, yet you still carry an umbrella.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, following the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB on October 29, 2026, the deposit facility rate is set above 2.50% (increase of at least 25 bps). If the rate remains at 2.50% or is reduced, the resolution is "No". Source: ECB key rates page and official statement on monetary policy decisions. If the meeting is postponed to a date later than October 30, 2026, the market is void.