Will the ECB deposit rate exceed 2.25% following the meeting on March 18, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 18 March 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Market expectations indicate a 39% probability of a rate hike to 3.25% at the March 18, 2027 meeting.
- JPMorgan forecasts a 25 basis point ECB rate hike in March 2027.
- The current ECB deposit rate is 2.50%, which is above the threshold of 2.25%.
- Some analysts anticipate further rate hikes in 2027 due to sustained growth and inflation risks.
It's like expecting the temperature to rise above 30°C on a hot summer day.
Market rules
Criterion: the ECB deposit facility rate announced after the meeting of the Governing Council on March 18, 2027 (publication at 14:15 CET). Threshold: strictly above 2.25% per annum. "Yes" — if the announced rate is greater than 2.25%; "No" — if it is equal to 2.25% or lower. Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html. Benchmark as of August 3, 2026: 2.25% per annum (effective from June 17, 2026; the rate was maintained at the meeting on July 23, 2026). Edge cases: a rate exactly at 2.25% is interpreted as "No"; if the meeting is postponed, canceled, or the decision is not published on 18.03.2027, the deposit facility rate in effect on March 31, 2027 is considered; a technical delay in publication of up to 48 hours does not change the outcome; any extraordinary changes in the rate before this date are taken into account.