Will the ECB deposit rate exceed 2.25% following the meeting on March 18, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 18 March 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +35 pp
- Markets anticipate a 25 bps rate hike by March 2027.
- The current deposit rate is 2.50%, above the 2.25% threshold.
- Analyst forecasts indicate further rate hikes.
- Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB's target.
It's like the thermometer reading 30°C, with forecasts predicting even hotter weather.
Market rules
Criterion: the ECB deposit facility rate announced after the meeting of the Governing Council on March 18, 2027 (publication at 14:15 CET). Threshold: strictly above 2.25% per annum. "Yes" — if the announced rate is greater than 2.25%; "No" — if it is equal to 2.25% or lower. Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html. Benchmark as of August 3, 2026: 2.25% per annum (effective from June 17, 2026; the rate was maintained at the meeting on July 23, 2026). Edge cases: a rate exactly at 2.25% is interpreted as "No"; if the meeting is postponed, canceled, or the decision is not published on 18.03.2027, the deposit facility rate in effect on March 31, 2027 is considered; a technical delay in publication of up to 48 hours does not change the outcome; any extraordinary changes in the rate before this date are taken into account.