"Doomsday": Will "Dune: Part Three" sensationally surpass "Avengers: Doomsday" on the opening weekend in the USA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 22 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -76 pp
- Avengers: Doomsday has amassed over $125 million in advance ticket sales, significantly surpassing Dune: Part Three.
- Projections forecast Avengers: Doomsday to open with $250–$320 million, whereas Dune: Part Three anticipates $100–$130 million.
- Dune: Part Three secured an exclusive IMAX window in the US, potentially limiting Avengers' access to these screens.
- Both franchises have strong fan bases, but Avengers has historically shown higher opening weekend box office performances.
It's akin to Avengers being a seasoned champion and Dune a promising contender.
Market rules
Yes, if according to Box Office Mojo, the box office earnings of the movie "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) in the USA and Canada for the weekend of December 18–20, 2026 (3 days, including previews) are strictly above the earnings of the movie "Avengers: Doomsday" (Disney/Marvel) for the same weekend. Otherwise No (including equality). The figures from the weekend page 2026W51 at the time of resolution on 22.12.2026 18:00 UTC are used (actuals, if published, otherwise studio estimates). If "Dune" is moved from this weekend — No; if "Avengers" is moved and "Dune" is released — Yes.