Drake vs UMG over 'Not Like Us': Will the appellate court issue a ruling by March 31, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 31 March 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- The Second Circuit typically issues decisions within 0.9 months after oral arguments.
- Oral arguments are scheduled for December 4, 2026, leaving approximately 3 months until March 31, 2027.
- The complexity of the case may extend the deliberation time.
- The possibility of voluntary withdrawal of the appeal or a settlement may affect the outcome.
Like a train that usually arrives on time but may be delayed due to complex conditions.
Market rules
Yes, if between 23.10.2026 and 31.03.2027 at 23:00 UTC the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit issues a ruling on the merits of the appeal in the case Graham v. UMG Recordings, Inc., No. 25-2758 (Aubrey Graham / Drake's defamation suit against UMG over Kendrick Lamar's track 'Not Like Us'; oral arguments scheduled for 04.12.2026): opinion, summary order, or judgment that affirms, reverses, or modifies (in whole or in part) the district court's decision. Otherwise No. Voluntary dismissal of the appeal or settlement before the decision - No. Procedural orders (on deadlines, postponement of arguments, etc.) do not count. Source: Second Circuit docket (Justia/PACER/CourtListener), if necessary - Reuters, AP, Billboard, Music Business Worldwide.