Will Starship achieve orbital insertion by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 80%
- Successful orbital insertion of Starship in June 2024.
- NASA's plans to use Starship for lunar missions in 2026.
- Successful re-entry and landing tests of Starship.
- SpaceX's rapid progress in Starship development.
Like a car that has successfully passed track tests and is ready for mass production.
Market rules
Yes = SpaceX confirms orbital insertion by 12.31.2026.
No = only suborbital flight.