Will Starship achieve orbital insertion by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +35 pp
- Successful orbital insertion of Starship on its 14th test flight in September 2026.
- SpaceX's plans for further orbital missions, including the Flight 15 launch in November 2026.
- Successful deployment of 26 Starlink V3 satellites during Flight 14, demonstrating Starship's payload capabilities.
- SpaceX's plans to utilize Starship for future missions, including supporting NASA's Artemis program.
Like a car that has successfully completed a long journey, ready for the next one.
Market rules
Yes = SpaceX confirms orbital insertion by 12.31.2026.
No = only suborbital flight.