Will the annual inflation in the USA (CPI for August 2026) be below 3.5%?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 16 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 17 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Recent data indicates that the annual inflation rate in the U.S. for August 2026 was 3.4%, below the 3.5% threshold.
- Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, decreased to 2.4%, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures.
- Despite rising energy prices, the overall inflation rate remains stable, reducing the likelihood of significant inflation increases in the near future.
- The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates to control inflation, which may contribute to further inflation reduction.
Like a temperature that stays below 37°C despite hot weather.
Market rules
"Yes" if the Consumer Price Index CPI-U for the USA (All items, for August 2026, year-over-year change) in the first release by the BLS is less than 3.5%. "No" if 3.5% or higher. The FIRST release is considered; subsequent revisions do not reopen the resolution. Source — BLS, publication expected in the second week of September 2026 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET); resolved based on the actual first publication.