Will the SEC approve Coinbase's perpetual futures on stocks by the end of 2026?

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: -23% for “No”, confidence 70%

• The SEC recently approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, indicating a more favorable stance towards cryptocurrency products.
• Coinbase filed for approval of equity perpetual futures in September 2026, leaving limited time for review before year-end.
• The SEC is engaged in litigation against Coinbase, which may complicate the approval process for new products.
• Equity perpetual futures are a novel financial product requiring thorough regulation, potentially slowing the approval process.

It's like trying to get a driver's license the day before turning 18.