Will the U.S. CLARITY Act be signed into law before October 1, 2026?

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: -50% for “No”, confidence 90%

• The CLARITY Act failed a Senate cloture vote on September 15, 2026, with a 49-50 result, falling short of the 60 votes needed to proceed.
• The bill faced significant opposition due to ethical concerns over President Trump's substantial crypto investments, leading to bipartisan resistance.
• With midterm elections approaching and Congress heading into recess, there is limited time for the bill to be reconsidered before the October 1, 2026 deadline.
• Key senators have declared the bill effectively dead, indicating a lack of momentum for its passage in the current legislative session.

The CLARITY Act's chances are like a ship that has already sunk; raising it before the deadline is highly improbable.