Will the U.S. CLARITY Act be signed into law before October 1, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 55%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 2
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 1 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -50 pp
- The CLARITY Act failed a Senate vote on September 15, 2026, with a 49-50 result, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance.
- The bill is not formally dead but is expected to face greater challenges after the upcoming midterm elections.
- The legislative calendar has limited time before the October 1, 2026, deadline, reducing the likelihood of the bill's passage.
- Opposition from key senators and concerns over ethics provisions have hindered the bill's progress.
It's like betting on a team to win after they've already been eliminated from the tournament.
Market rules
Resolves YES if the CLARITY Act is enacted (signed by the President or becomes law without signature) on or before 2026-09-30 UTC, as recorded on congress.gov. Otherwise NO.