Will the Court of Justice of the EU re-elect Koen Lenaerts as president for a new term in October 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 October 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -38 pp
- Koen Lenaerts was re-elected as President of the EU Court in October 2024 for a term until October 2027.
- The term of office for EU Court judges is six years, and for the president, it is three years, allowing for re-election.
- Lenaerts has held the position of president since 2015 and has been re-elected three times, indicating the trust of his colleagues.
- The lack of information about Lenaerts' plans for 2027 makes it difficult to predict his re-election.
Like a team captain who has won the championship three times but hasn't announced if they'll participate in the next season.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the judges of the Court of Justice of the EU elect the current president Koen Lenaerts for a new term in the presidential elections in October 2027, after the completion of Koen Lenaerts' current three-year term (which expires in October 2027), according to the official announcement at curia.europa.eu. If another judge is elected as president — "No". Edge case: if Lenaerts does not run for re-election or the elections do not take place by December 31, 2027 — "No".