Will the Court of Justice of the EU re-elect Koen Lenaerts as president for a new term in October 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 October 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +0% for “Yes”, confidence 70%
- Koen Lenaerts has held the position of President of the CJEU since 2015, indicating the trust of his colleagues.
- There is no information about age limits or term restrictions for re-election as President of the CJEU.
- Absence of public statements from Lenaerts about intentions not to run for a new term.
- Precedents where leaders of organizations, such as UEFA, decline re-election despite the possibility of term extension.
As with presidents of other organizations, re-election depends on personal decisions and organizational norms.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the judges of the Court of Justice of the EU elect the current president Koen Lenaerts for a new term in the presidential elections in October 2027, after the completion of Koen Lenaerts' current three-year term (which expires in October 2027), according to the official announcement at curia.europa.eu. If another judge is elected as president — "No". Edge case: if Lenaerts does not run for re-election or the elections do not take place by December 31, 2027 — "No".