Will Circle (USDC) hold a MiCA CASP license in 3 or more EU states by year-end 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 60%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +30 pp
- Circle has already secured a MiCA CASP license in France, allowing it to operate across all EU member states.
- The MiCA framework enables passporting, meaning a license in one EU country is valid across the entire EU.
- Circle's proactive compliance with MiCA regulations positions it favorably for obtaining additional licenses if needed.
- The EU's regulatory environment is supportive of compliant stablecoin issuers like Circle.
Having a MiCA CASP license in France is like having a universal key that unlocks doors across all EU countries.
Market rules
Resolves YES if Circle (or a Circle entity) holds MiCA CASP authorization in 3 or more EU member states as of 2026-12-31 UTC, per official national regulator registers (e.g. AMF) or Circle disclosures. Otherwise NO.