Will Circle (USDC) hold a MiCA CASP license in 3 or more EU states by year-end 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 60%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +25% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Circle obtained a MiCA CASP license in France in April 2026.
- MiCA allows passporting of licenses across EU member states, facilitating expansion.
- Circle's compliance with MiCA positions it favorably for further authorizations.
- The regulatory environment encourages licensed entities to operate in multiple EU countries.
Like a company expanding its operations after securing a key certification.
Market rules
Resolves YES if Circle (or a Circle entity) holds MiCA CASP authorization in 3 or more EU member states as of 2026-12-31 UTC, per official national regulator registers (e.g. AMF) or Circle disclosures. Otherwise NO.