Will Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' reach 25 weeks at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 by the chart dated October 10?
Current probability of “Yes”: 10%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 7 October 2026
- Participants
- 2
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 10 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +80 pp
- Ella Langley's 'Choosin’ Texas' has already spent 24 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, setting a new record.
Like a marathon runner who has already completed 24 miles out of 26.2, the likelihood of finishing the race is high.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated October 10, 2026 (published by Billboard around October 6, 2026), the song "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley is in 1st place, and the total number of weeks it has spent at number one (not necessarily consecutive) according to Billboard reaches at least 25. The condition is equivalent to the song remaining at #1 in all three charts dated September 26, October 3, and October 10, 2026. At the time of market creation, the song has 22 weeks at #1 (the chart dated September 19, 2026 — a tie with the record held by Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You"). If the song is not at #1 in at least one of these three charts — "No". Confirmation: the chart page on billboard.com and the official Billboard article about the chart; changes to the Billboard chart after the publication date (retroactive adjustments) are not taken into account.