Will Chang'e-7 launch to the Moon by September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -88% for “No”, confidence 95%
- The Chinese lunar mission Chang'e-7 has been postponed and will not take place in 2026.
- Official sources have not provided a new launch date, but the mission is expected to take place in 2027.
- The decision to postpone was made after a comprehensive assessment based on the principles of prudence, reliability, and guaranteed mission success.
- The lack of specific reasons for the delay and a new launch date increases uncertainty about the mission's completion by September 30, 2026.
It's like a train being canceled without a new departure date.
Market rules
Criterion: the market resolves to "Yes" if the Chinese lunar mission Chang'e-7 (orbiter, landing module, hopping probe, and rover, Long March 5 rocket) launches by September 30, 2026, 12:00 UTC inclusive. Source: nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/4723/ and official CNSA announcements (cnsa.gov.cn). Edge case: a launch delay to a date after September 30, 2026, is counted as "No"; flight failure after launch (T-0) does not affect the outcome — only the fact of the launch is important.