Will Chang'e-7 launch to the Moon by September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 1 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -83 pp
- Official sources, such as CNSA, indicate that the Chang'e-7 mission is scheduled for 2026.
- However, recent updates on Next Spaceflight indicate a launch no earlier than 2027.
- The lack of official statements about a launch delay creates uncertainty.
- Historically, space missions often face delays due to technical and organizational issues.
It's like waiting for a train scheduled to arrive in 2026, but recent station announcements say it won't arrive until 2027.
Market rules
Criterion: the market resolves to "Yes" if the Chinese lunar mission Chang'e-7 (orbiter, landing module, hopping probe, and rover, Long March 5 rocket) launches by September 30, 2026, 12:00 UTC inclusive. Source: nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/4723/ and official CNSA announcements (cnsa.gov.cn). Edge case: a launch delay to a date after September 30, 2026, is counted as "No"; flight failure after launch (T-0) does not affect the outcome — only the fact of the launch is important.