Will the average price of diesel in California exceed $9.00 per gallon by October 31, 2026?

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%

• The current average diesel price in California is $8.14 per gallon, nearing the $9.00 threshold.
• Recent geopolitical events, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, have significantly reduced global oil supplies.
• The reduction in refining capacity in California, including the closure of two refineries since October 2025, has decreased local diesel production.
• Historically high diesel prices in California, reaching $8.14 per gallon, indicate a continuing upward trend.

Like a train gaining speed downhill, California diesel prices are heading toward the $9.00 per gallon mark.