Will the average price of diesel in California exceed $9.00 per gallon by October 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 31 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 2 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +7 pp
- The current diesel price in California is $8.16 per gallon, just $0.84 below the $9.00 threshold.
- Recent geopolitical events, such as the war with Iran, have led to record diesel prices.
- EIA forecasts for 2027 have been raised to $4.40 per gallon, indicating expectations of rising prices.
- Seasonal factors, such as fall refinery maintenance, may constrain supply and drive prices higher.
The diesel price in California is like water in a pot that's already near boiling.
Market rules
"Yes" if EIA data shows that the average retail price of diesel in California reaches or exceeds $9.00/gallon by 10.31.2026. "No" if below.