Will the President of Bulgaria be elected in the first round of elections on October 25, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 90%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 26 October 2026
- Participants
- 2
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 27 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -80 pp
- Polls indicate that Iliana Iotova garners around 47%, insufficient for a first-round victory.
- Historically, no candidate has won the Bulgarian presidential election in the first round.
- Low voter turnout is anticipated, potentially reducing chances for a first-round victory.
- Forecasts suggest a likely runoff between Iotova and Gyurov.
Like trying to win a match by scoring only half the required goals.
Market rules
Criteria: according to the official results of the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (CEC), one of the candidates is declared elected president in the first round of the presidential elections on October 25, 2026 (has obtained the necessary majority of votes). "Yes" — if the CEC announces the elected president based on the first-round results; "No" — if a second round is scheduled (set for November 1, 2026). Source: CEC Bulgaria results (cik.bg); for convenience of verification — election page on Wikipedia. Guideline: the current president Iliana Iotova leads in the polls (around 40%), no candidate has previously won in the first round. If the elections are postponed, the market is canceled.