Will the total net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs for August 2026 be positive?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 6 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 7 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +50% for “Yes”, confidence 95%
- Strong inflows in August 2026: US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion in net inflows in August 2026, the highest for the year.
- Predominance of inflow days: Out of 21 trading days in August, 16 were inflow days, indicating consistent demand.
- Bitcoin price increase: Bitcoin rose approximately 25% in August, surpassing $80,000, potentially driving ETF investments.
- BlackRock's leadership: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted a significant portion of inflows, indicating investor confidence.
Like a river swelling with water in August, Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant inflows.
Market rules
Yes = the sum of daily net flows of all US spot BTC ETFs for August > 0 according to Farside/SoSoValue. No = ≤ 0. Final data will be published in the first days of September.