Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 59.5% according to CoinMarketCap on September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 1 October 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +15% for “Yes”, confidence 80%
- Bitcoin dominance is currently at 58.84% as of September 13, 2026, nearing the 59.5% threshold.
- Historically, Bitcoin dominance exceeded 59% in early September 2026, indicating potential for further increase.
- Institutional investments, such as ETFs, continue to attract capital into Bitcoin, supporting its dominant position.
- Altcoins are not showing significant growth, reducing the likelihood of Bitcoin dominance decreasing in the near future.
It's like Bitcoin being the largest company in the stock market, with its share continuing to grow due to competitors' lack of growth.
Market rules
Criteria: the daily value of Bitcoin Dominance for September 30, 2026 (end of day UTC) on the CoinMarketCap page. Threshold: strictly above 59.5%. "Yes" — if the value on 30.09.2026 is greater than 59.5%; "No" — if it is equal to 59.5% or less. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/. Benchmark on August 3, 2026: 58.6% (one month ago — 57.8%). Edge cases: a value of exactly 59.5% is interpreted as "No"; the comparison is made on the value rounded to one decimal place; in case of publication delay or temporary unavailability of the page, the value for 30.09.2026 that is available within 48 hours after 01.10.2026 00:00 UTC will be taken; any subsequent revision of data or methodology by CoinMarketCap will take into account the first published value.