Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 59.5% according to CoinMarketCap on September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 1 October 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 4 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +15 pp
- Bitcoin's current dominance is 59.2% and shows an upward trend.
- Historically, Bitcoin's dominance has exceeded 59.5% during periods of market uncertainty.
- The absence of significant events that could boost altcoins supports Bitcoin's dominance.
- Institutional investments continue to flow predominantly into Bitcoin, strengthening its position.
Like a river flowing in one direction, Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise.
Market rules
Criteria: the daily value of Bitcoin Dominance for September 30, 2026 (end of day UTC) on the CoinMarketCap page. Threshold: strictly above 59.5%. "Yes" — if the value on 30.09.2026 is greater than 59.5%; "No" — if it is equal to 59.5% or less. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/. Benchmark on August 3, 2026: 58.6% (one month ago — 57.8%). Edge cases: a value of exactly 59.5% is interpreted as "No"; the comparison is made on the value rounded to one decimal place; in case of publication delay or temporary unavailability of the page, the value for 30.09.2026 that is available within 48 hours after 01.10.2026 00:00 UTC will be taken; any subsequent revision of data or methodology by CoinMarketCap will take into account the first published value.