Will the price of Brent oil on October 16, 2026 exceed $105 per barrel according to EIA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 23 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 24 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +73 pp
- EIA forecast for Q4 2026: $105 per barrel
- Current Brent price: around $118 per barrel
- Geopolitical instability in the Middle East
- Declining global oil inventories
It's like the market estimating a 12% chance of rain in the desert when the weather forecast predicts a downpour.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the spot price of Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (EIA, series DCOILBRENTEU on FRED) for October 16, 2026 is strictly above $105.00 per barrel. If the value is equal to $105.00 or lower — "No". If there is no value on October 16 (weekend, no quote), the last published value of the series before this date is taken. As of September 18, 2026, the estimate is around $104 per barrel. Source: the DCOILBRENTEU series page on fred.stlouisfed.org.