Will the Selic target rate in Brazil be below 14.00% on September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 1 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +25 pp
- Recent market forecasts indicate a reduction of the Selic rate to 13.50% by the end of 2026.
- Copom recently reduced the Selic rate to 13.75%, indicating a trend towards lower rates.
- Inflation forecasts for 2026 remain within the target range, supporting the possibility of further rate cuts.
- Economic growth is slowing, which may prompt the central bank to further ease monetary policy.
Like temperatures gradually dropping with the arrival of autumn, interest rates are also showing a downward trend.
Market rules
Criterion: Selic target rate (Selic meta) in effect on September 30, 2026, according to decisions of Copom of the Central Bank of Brazil. Threshold: strictly below 14.00% per annum. "Yes" — if the rate on 30.09.2026 is less than 14.00%; "No" — if it is equal to 14.00% or higher. Source: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/monetarypolicy/copomstatements (additional check — series 432 of the SGS database of the Central Bank of Brazil). Reference on August 3, 2026: 14.25% per annum (decision of the 279th Copom meeting, June 2026). Edge cases: exactly 14.00% is interpreted as "No"; if the Copom meeting is postponed or publication is delayed, the rate in effect at the end of 30.09.2026 by Brasília time is taken; extraordinary decisions of Copom are considered; in the event of technical revision of SGS data, the official statement of Copom takes precedence.