Will Brazil surpass Russia in nominal GDP by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 30 April 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -30 pp
- IMF projections for 2026 indicate that Russia's nominal GDP ($2,861.16 billion) exceeds Brazil's nominal GDP ($2,654.76 billion).
- Russia's economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.1%, which is higher than Brazil's (1.9%).
- Brazil faces fiscal risks and a weak exchange rate, which may constrain its economic growth.
- Global economic uncertainty, including high interest rates and geopolitical conflicts, may impact the economic growth of both countries.
Like a race where one runner has a slight lead, but both face hurdles along the way.
Market rules
"Yes" if the final data from the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook) shows Brazil's nominal GDP for 2026 in current US dollars is higher than Russia's nominal GDP for 2026. "No" if it is equal to or lower. Resolved by the first publication of the IMF with actual (not forecast) values for 2026 or by the latest available estimate from the IMF for 2026 at the resolution date. Source - IMF World Economic Outlook database.