Will Brazil surpass Russia in nominal GDP by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 30 April 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -40% for “No”, confidence 85%
- IMF projections for 2026 indicate that Russia's nominal GDP ($2,509 billion) significantly exceeds Brazil's nominal GDP ($2,445 billion).
- Historically, Russia has had a higher nominal GDP than Brazil, and current projections do not indicate a change in this trend.
- Brazil's economic growth, while positive, is not projected to be high enough to surpass Russia's by 2026.
- IMF projections are based on current economic trends and policies, which do not suggest significant changes favoring Brazil over Russia.
Like a race where one runner consistently leads another, with no signs of a change in pace.
Market rules
"Yes" if the final data from the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook) shows Brazil's nominal GDP for 2026 in current US dollars is higher than Russia's nominal GDP for 2026. "No" if it is equal to or lower. Resolved by the first publication of the IMF with actual (not forecast) values for 2026 or by the latest available estimate from the IMF for 2026 at the resolution date. Source - IMF World Economic Outlook database.