Booker Prize 2026: will the bookmakers' favorite Marlon James win with the novel 'The Disappearers'?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 10 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -13 pp
- Critical Acclaim: 'The Disappearers' has received high praise from critics, including The New York Times, which called it a 'masterpiece' and 'the novel of the decade, if not the century.'
- Previous Wins: Marlon James previously won the Booker Prize in 2015, which may influence the judges' decision.
- Competition: The shortlist includes other strong contenders, including Douglas Stuart, also a previous winner.
- Historical Precedents: Only four authors have previously won the Booker Prize twice, making a repeat win a rare occurrence.
Like in sports, where the favorite has high odds of winning, but the outcome remains uncertain.
Market rules
Yes, if the official announcement by the Booker Prize Foundation (ceremony scheduled for November 9, 2026, London) names Marlon James' novel 'The Disappearers' as the winner of the 2026 Booker Prize. Otherwise No. Prize splitting between multiple books, if 'The Disappearers' is among the winners — Yes. Source: thebookerprizes.com, if necessary — The Guardian, Reuters, AP. If the announcement is postponed, the resolution is based on the first official announcement by December 31, 2026; if the winner is not announced by that date — No.