Will Amazon MGM announce a new actor to play James Bond by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- Amazon MGM Studios confirmed that the search for the new James Bond began in May 2026.
- Final auditions involving several actors, including Jack Lowden, Callum Turner, and Josh O'Connor, were scheduled for late October 2026.
- Producer Amy Pascal stated that announcing the new Bond by the end of 2026 is likely.
- Previous official James Bond casting announcements have occurred several months after auditions concluded.
It's like waiting for exam results: the process is complete, but the official results haven't been announced yet.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, from the creation of the market until 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, Amazon MGM Studios (or the official account/website of the franchise) publicly names the actor who will play James Bond in the next film in the franchise (Bond 26). Rumors, "leaks," insider messages, statements from the actors themselves, and agents without studio confirmation do not count. An announcement made before the creation of the market does not count (as of the creation date, the performer is not officially named). If there is no official announcement of the name during the specified period - "No". Confirmation: the official franchise website 007.com and the press release from Amazon MGM Studios; duplicative sources - Variety, Deadline, Reuters.