Will Blue Origin successfully launch the New Glenn rocket by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +73 pp
- Successful New Glenn launch in January 2025.
- Successful first-stage landing in November 2025.
- Plans to launch Blue Moon in 2026.
- Recovery after May 2026 accident.
Like an athlete recovering from injury and ready to compete.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieves at least one successful launch (liftoff and delivery of payload to the target orbit/trajectory; landing of the first stage is not required) by December 31, 2026, according to the company’s official announcements (https://www.blueorigin.com/news) or NASA/FAA. An accident, loss of payload, or postponement of the launch to 2027 means the resolution is "No."