Will Blue Origin successfully launch the New Glenn rocket by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +73% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Successful New Glenn launches in January and November 2025.
- Plans to increase launch frequency and upgrade the rocket.
- Successful first stage reuse in April 2026.
- Plans to resume launches by end of 2026 after May incident.
Like a train that has successfully completed its route twice and plans to increase its frequency.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieves at least one successful launch (liftoff and delivery of payload to the target orbit/trajectory; landing of the first stage is not required) by December 31, 2026, according to the company’s official announcements (https://www.blueorigin.com/news) or NASA/FAA. An accident, loss of payload, or postponement of the launch to 2027 means the resolution is "No."