Will Binance receive a MiCA license in at least one EU country by June 30, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 30 June 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -58 pp
- Binance withdrew its MiCA license application in June 2026 and suspended services in the EU.
- Since withdrawing its application, Binance has not submitted new MiCA license applications in the EU.
- Other major exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase have already obtained MiCA licenses, increasing competition.
- MiCA regulatory requirements are stringent, and the licensing process can take significant time.
It's like a major company withdrawing its application for a crucial contract and not reapplying, while competitors have already secured it.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if, from the creation of the market until 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2027, any EU/EEA jurisdiction issues a license to the legal entity Binance (or an entity affiliated with Binance that Binance officially refers to as its regulated EU entity) as a crypto asset service provider (CASP) under the MiCA regulation, and this is confirmed by an entry in the ESMA register (Interim MiCA Register) or an official statement from Binance/national regulator. Conditional/in-principle approval without registration or public announcement of the license issuance is not considered. National registrations of VASPs under old regimes and licenses issued not under MiCA do not count. As of the date of creation, Binance does not have a valid CASP license in the EU: the Greek application was withdrawn in June 2026, and on September 18, 2026, WSJ reported on the intervention of C. Lagarde. If the license is not issued — "No".