Will global box office for "Avengers: Doomsday" reach $1.5 billion by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +15 pp
- Strong advance ticket sales: 'Avengers: Doomsday' has amassed $125 million in advance sales seven weeks before release, indicating high audience interest.
Like a rocket gaining speed before liftoff, the advance sales of 'Avengers: Doomsday' point to potential box office success.
Market rules
The film Avengers: Doomsday (Marvel Studios / Walt Disney Studios) is released in US theaters on December 18, 2026.
Yes — if Box Office Mojo on the film's page (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21357150/) indicates at least $1,500,000,000 in the Worldwide (Lifetime Gross = Domestic + International) metric as of December 31, 2026, 20:00 UTC. No — if the value is less.
A value of exactly $1,500,000,000 counts as "Yes". Only box office collections from theaters are considered.
Borderline cases: (1) if the release is postponed and the film has not been released by December 31, 2026 — outcome is "No"; (2) if due to holiday reporting delays the data is not updated at the time of resolution — the first published Worldwide figure reflecting gross up to and including December 31, 2026, will be taken within the following 7 days; (3) if the film's page is unavailable, the summary table https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2026/ will be used.