"Avengers: Doomsday": weekend box office in the US ≥ $250 million?

Current probability of “Yes”: 88%

Status
Open
Category
Entertainment
Closing date
22 December 2026
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%

  • Record-breaking advance ticket sales: $16.5 million in the first 24 hours.
  • Return of key actors and directors, including Robert Downey Jr. and the Russo brothers.
  • Merger of popular franchises like Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four.
  • Lack of significant competition during the film's release period.

Just as 'Avengers: Endgame' set box office records, 'Avengers: Doomsday' is poised to replicate that success.

Market rules

The market resolves "Yes" if, according to Box Office Mojo, the domestic box office gross (US and Canada) of the movie "Avengers: Doomsday" for its opening weekend (December 18–20, 2026) is $250,000,000 or more. If the gross is below the threshold or final data is not published by the resolution date (including postponement of the premiere), the market resolves "No". Source: the film's page on Box Office Mojo.

Official resolution source