Will 'Avengers: Doomsday' gross at least $250 million in its opening weekend in the U.S.?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 23 December 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +35 pp
- Advance ticket sales for 'Avengers: Doomsday' have already exceeded $125 million 100 days before release, indicating strong audience interest.
- Analyst projections estimate the film's opening weekend earnings between $360 and $420 million in the U.S., significantly surpassing the $250 million threshold.
- The previous Marvel film, 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day,' grossed a record $360 million in its opening weekend, showcasing the franchise's potential.
- The film's release is scheduled for December, a traditionally strong period for box office earnings, which may contribute to high revenues.
Just as 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' exceeded expectations, 'Avengers: Doomsday' has the potential for significant earnings.
Market rules
Criterion: Domestic (U.S. and Canada) box office gross of the film 'Avengers: Doomsday' (Marvel Studios / Walt Disney Studios) for the opening three-day weekend of December 18–20, 2026.
Threshold: >= $250,000,000.
Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21357150/ (measure Opening / Domestic Opening Weekend).
Resolution date: December 23, 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Yes — if the published opening weekend value is equal to or exceeds $250 million. No — if it is less.
Edge cases: Previews and Thursday showings are counted only to the extent they are included in the Opening measure at the source; separate studio estimates and tracker forecasts are not used. If the release is postponed and the film does not hit U.S. theaters by December 20, 2026, inclusive — the outcome is No. If by December 23, 18:00 UTC, the data is not yet published, the resolution is delayed until publication, but no later than January 15, 2027, 18:00 UTC.