Will 'Avengers: Doomsday' gross at least $250 million in its opening weekend in the U.S.?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 23 December 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Record-breaking advance ticket sales, reaching $16.5 million in the first 24 hours.
- Return of popular actors like Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans increases audience interest.
- Positive analyst forecasts expecting an opening in the $225–300 million range.
- Strong interest in the trailer, garnering 503 million views in the first 24 hours.
Just as 'Avengers: Endgame' set records, 'Avengers: Doomsday' is poised to replicate the success.
Market rules
Criterion: Domestic (U.S. and Canada) box office gross of the film 'Avengers: Doomsday' (Marvel Studios / Walt Disney Studios) for the opening three-day weekend of December 18–20, 2026.
Threshold: >= $250,000,000.
Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21357150/ (measure Opening / Domestic Opening Weekend).
Resolution date: December 23, 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Yes — if the published opening weekend value is equal to or exceeds $250 million. No — if it is less.
Edge cases: Previews and Thursday showings are counted only to the extent they are included in the Opening measure at the source; separate studio estimates and tracker forecasts are not used. If the release is postponed and the film does not hit U.S. theaters by December 20, 2026, inclusive — the outcome is No. If by December 23, 18:00 UTC, the data is not yet published, the resolution is delayed until publication, but no later than January 15, 2027, 18:00 UTC.