Will the first hurricane of the 2026 season appear in the Atlantic before October 31?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 2 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +12 pp
- Hurricane Isaias formed on October 6, 2026, becoming the first hurricane of the season.
- The U.S. National Hurricane Center confirmed that Isaias reached hurricane intensity.
- According to market rules, if at least one tropical cyclone reached hurricane intensity between September 20 and October 31, 2026, the outcome 'Yes' is considered correct.
- Historically, hurricanes often form in the Atlantic basin in October.
It's like betting that the sun will rise in the morning.
Market rules
Criterion: at least one tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin reaches hurricane intensity (hurricane, sustained winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h) according to official advisories from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the period from September 20 to October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. “Yes” — if this occurs; “No” — if no cyclone reaches hurricane status during this period. Source: 2026 season page on Wikipedia and advisory archive at nhc.noaa.gov. Guideline: as of September 20, 2026, there are six named storms and no hurricanes in the season. Edge cases: the operational classification by NHC at the time of the advisory is considered; subsequent postseason revisions are not taken into account; storms that became subtropical or extratropical are not counted if they did not reach hurricane intensity as a tropical cyclone.