Will Ariane 6 successfully launch Amazon Leo satellites into orbit by October 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
Market rules
Criterion: The Ariane 6 launch vehicle (Ariane 64 variant) successfully puts a batch of Amazon Leo satellites (Project Kuiper) into low Earth orbit from the ELA-4 launch site (Kourou) by October 31, 2026, inclusive. Successful deployment is considered to be the nominal separation of the satellites into the target orbit. A delay of the launch to November 2026 or later, or a rocket failure — "No". Source: Official data from Arianespace/Amazon and the NextSpaceflight tracker.