Will Anthropic's valuation exceed $1.5 trillion in a new deal by December 31, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 88%

Status
Open
Category
Business
Closing date
1 January 2027
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%

  • Anthropic plans an IPO with a valuation around $2 trillion by the end of 2026.
  • The company has achieved annual revenue exceeding $100 billion, indicating significant growth.
  • In May 2026, Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H round at a $965 billion valuation.
  • The AI market is rapidly growing, and investors show high interest in companies within this sector.

Like a rocket gaining speed before reaching orbit.

Market rules

The market resolves to "Yes" if Anthropic closes a new funding round or secondary deal with a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion (post-money) by December 31, 2026, according to official confirmation from Anthropic (https://www.anthropic.com/news) or major publications (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times) with a specific figure. The baseline is the Series H round of $965 billion from May 28, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or negotiations without a closed deal do not count.

Official resolution source