Will Anthropic's valuation exceed $1.5 trillion in a new deal by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- Anthropic recently filed for an IPO with a potential valuation near $2 trillion.
- The company reported quarterly revenue of $17 billion, indicating significant growth.
- However, the company also reported a net loss of $23.3 billion for the same period.
- The AI market faces uncertainty due to rising costs and competition.
It's like a team winning many games but spending more than it earns.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if Anthropic closes a new funding round or secondary deal with a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion (post-money) by December 31, 2026, according to official confirmation from Anthropic (https://www.anthropic.com/news) or major publications (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times) with a specific figure. The baseline is the Series H round of $965 billion from May 28, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or negotiations without a closed deal do not count.