Will the next Ethereum upgrade be activated on the mainnet by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +25% for “Yes”, confidence 80%
- Ethereum's current plan schedules the Glamsterdam upgrade for Q4 2026.
- Previous upgrades, like Fusaka, were successfully activated as scheduled.
- Ethereum adopts a conservative approach to upgrades to ensure network security and stability.
- Current testing and development for the Glamsterdam upgrade are on schedule without significant delays.
Like a train running on schedule despite potential minor delays.
Market rules
Yes = mainnet activation epoch is announced and occurs before 12.31.2026. No = postponed to 2027+. Source — Ethereum Foundation.