Will the next Ethereum upgrade be activated on the mainnet by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +25 pp
- Glamsterdam testing on Sepolia was successful in October 2026.
- Activation on the Hoodi testnet is scheduled for October 26, 2026.
- Mainnet activation is expected in Q4 2026, though the exact date is unconfirmed.
- Previous Ethereum upgrades, like Fusaka, were successfully deployed within planned timelines.
Like a train that has passed most stations and is approaching the final stop.
Market rules
Yes = mainnet activation epoch is announced and occurs before 12.31.2026. No = postponed to 2027+. Source — Ethereum Foundation.