Will 2026 be the warmest year on record according to NASA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 15 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +73 pp
- 2024 was the warmest year on record, with global temperatures 1.28°C above the 1951–1980 average.
- 2025 and 2023 were also among the three warmest years, indicating a continuing warming trend.
- Atmospheric CO₂ concentration has reached approximately 420 parts per million, contributing to global warming.
- Models predict further increases in global temperatures in the coming years.
It's like observing each year getting hotter and expecting the next year to be even hotter.
Market rules
"Yes" if according to NASA GISTEMP annual data (J-D indicator for 2026, global surface temperature index) the year 2026 turns out to be the warmest year on record (value higher than that of 2024 — the current record holder), based on data published before January 15, 2027. Otherwise — "No". If as of the resolution date the annual data has not yet been published, the resolution is postponed until their publication, but for no more than 30 days.