Will 2026 be the warmest year on record according to NASA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 15 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +13% for “Yes”, confidence 70%
- 2024 was the warmest year on record, with global temperatures 1.28°C above the 1951–1980 average.
- The last 10 years have been the warmest on record, indicating a continuing warming trend.
- Forecasts for 2026 indicate a likelihood of La Niña development, which could lead to cooling global temperatures.
- Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, contributing to long-term warming.
It's like betting that next year will be even hotter, despite potential cooling from La Niña.
Market rules
"Yes" if according to NASA GISTEMP annual data (J-D indicator for 2026, global surface temperature index) the year 2026 turns out to be the warmest year on record (value higher than that of 2024 — the current record holder), based on data published before January 15, 2027. Otherwise — "No". If as of the resolution date the annual data has not yet been published, the resolution is postponed until their publication, but for no more than 30 days.